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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."